Weekly market guide
Review the latest portfolio strategy commentary from Mike Gibbs, managing director of Equity Portfolio and Technical Strategy.
Lower inflation expectations and bond yields are underpinning an impressive 13% S&P 500 rally from oversold levels over the last 32 days. Equities have nearly retraced half of this year’s losses since mid-June, and the current relief rally has been the longest and largest seen this year. Importantly, there have been positives in the bounce that lower the odds of prolonged or meaningfully more downside.
The most significant development has been broad weakness across the commodity complex. This should filter through to lower inflation ahead, and is already showing up in some economic data- i.e. ISM Services prices paid (a leading indicator on inflation) dropped considerably in July. Also, the national average price per gallon for unleaded gasoline has contracted to $4.16 (from a peak of $5) and mortgage rates have declined since mid-June, all of which should ease the strain on US consumers. Lower inflation expectations have influenced lower bond yields, which are moderating their sharp ascent seen over the first half of this year. This, in turn, is supporting equity market valuations, which are now at more reasonable levels (from very elevated levels last year).
Although the current market rally off the bottom is impressive, we don't expect stocks to run unbridled to new all-time highs in the coming months as they did following the 2018 trade war plunge and 2020 Covid shutdown. Stocks often take time to rebuild after trying and uncertain periods. Inflation remains very high and will not allow the Fed to come to the rescue as it did in late 2018 and 2020, which influenced a V-bottom in stocks for both periods. Additionally, the lag effect of current Fed tightening will weigh on the economy and earnings growth in the months ahead- as market concerns shift from inflation toward economic and fundamental weakness. For these reasons, a more prolonged period of back-and-forth trading is most likely in our view.
While recent price action suggests the S&P 500 is attempting to transition to more of a sideways trend, the predominant trend remains downward for now. Moreover, the S&P 500 is now overbought in the short-term and approaching resistance in the ~4200 area. Tactically, this provides some pause to chase the rally, along with overall leadership still skewing defensive- supporting our expectation for setbacks in the weeks to months ahead. We recommend using those pullback periods as opportunity to accumulate favored stocks and reposition portfolios. While there is likely more time or weakness to go in this bear market, don’t lose sight of the bull market opportunity on the other side of the current weak trend.
IMPORTANT INVESTOR DISCLOSURES
This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Expressions of opinion are provided as of the date above and subject to change. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
Links to third-party websites are being provided for informational purposes only. Raymond James is not affiliated with and does not endorse, authorize, or sponsor any of the listed websites or their respective sponsors. Raymond James is not responsible for the content of any third-party website or the collection or use of information regarding any websites users and/or members.
This report is provided to clients of Raymond James only for your personal, noncommercial use. Except as expressly authorized by Raymond James, you may not copy, reproduce, transmit, sell, display, distribute, publish, broadcast, circulate, modify, disseminate, or commercially exploit the information contained in this report, in printed, electronic, or any other form, in any manner, without the prior express written consent of Raymond James. You also agree not to use the information provided in this report for any unlawful purpose. This report and its contents are the property of Raymond James and are protected by applicable copyright, trade secret, or other intellectual property laws (of the United States and other countries). United States law, 17 U.S.C. Sec. 501 et seq, provides for civil and criminal penalties for copyright infringement. No copyright claimed in incorporated U.S. government works.
The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price-weighted average of 30 significant stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the NASDAQ.
The NASDAQ Composite is a stock market index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the NASDAQ stock market.
The MSCI World All Cap Index captures large, mid, small and micro-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets (DM) countries. With 11,732 constituents, the index is comprehensive, covering approximately 99% of the free float-adjusted market capitalization in each country.
MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia, and Far East) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure developed market equity performance, excluding the United States & Canada. The EAFE consists of the country indices of 21 developed nations.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index is designed to measure equity market performance in 23 emerging market countries. The index's three largest industries are materials, energy, and banks.
Keep in mind that individuals cannot invest directly in any index, and index performance does not include transaction costs or other fees, which will affect actual investment performance. Individual investor's results will vary. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Future investment performance cannot be guaranteed, investment yields will fluctuate with market conditions.
For clients in the United Kingdom:
For clients of Raymond James Financial International Limited (RJFI): This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in the FCA rules or persons described in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) or 49(2) (high net worth companies, unincorporated associations, etc.) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended)or any other person to whom this promotion may lawfully be directed. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is, therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients.
For clients of Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd.: This document is for the use of professional investment advisers and managers and is not intended for use by clients.
For clients in France:
This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in "Code Monetaire et Financier" and Reglement General de l'Autorite des marches Financiers. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is, therefore, not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients.
For clients of Raymond James Euro Equities: Raymond James Euro Equities is authorised and regulated by the Autorite de Controle Prudentiel et de Resolution and the Autorite des Marches Financiers.
For institutional clients in the European Economic rea (EE ) outside of the United Kingdom:
This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted.
For Canadian clients:
This document is not prepared subject to Canadian disclosure requirements, unless a Canadian has contributed to the content of the document. In the case where there is Canadian contribution, the document meets all applicable IIROC disclosure requirements.
Broker Dealer Disclosures
Securities are: NOT Deposits • NOT Insured by FDIC or any other government agency • NOT GUARANTEED by the bank • Subject to risk and may lose value
Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. Raymond James Financial Services, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. Raymond James® is a registered trademark of Raymond James Financial, Inc.